Riyad Mahrez

Could ‘Moneyball’ Ever Work In Football?

Since the new millennium a singular concept has swept through American professional sports. The concept is known as ‘Moneyball’,  has been made famous by the 2003 best selling book and the 2011 film starring Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill. After conquering American sports, the question is, can the concept work in football?

For those of you who  are not familiar with the ‘Moneyball’ idea, it’s the concept that individual players are over valued and a team filled with smaller players working to a common goal are just as effective as world class talent, costing a lot less money and allowing smaller teams to compete with bigger teams. Whilst this is a broad description of it, it’s the only way to explain it so it would work in professional football.

Existing football pundits may suggest that the concept is a novel idea but would not work in football and they could have a point. For a start, football does not have a salary cap unlike major American sports. They would suggest that this means that the concept has little relevance to football, however for me I have to disagree.

The ethos of the concept is to help smaller budget teams compete more evenly with their financially richer rivals. The sport in which gave the concept its fame is Baseball, a game which arguably has the biggest discrepancy in finances. According to Spotrac going into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, there is a difference of $179 million dollars between the L.A Dodgers $242 million dollar payroll and the Milwaukee Brewers $63 million dollar payroll.

Whilst there is a large difference in finances between the top and bottom of the Premier League for example, the financial divide is no where near as big as baseball. If teams such as the Oakland A’s can compete with major teams in baseball the same is possible within the Premier League.

Last season Leicester City proved inadvertently that the ‘Moneyball’ concept can work at a high level in football. They assembled a squad that cost under £30 million pounds, with their biggest signing being Japanese striker Shinji Okazaki for £7 million. With their own brand of counter attacking football manager Claudio Ranieri, they shocked sports fans across the world.

They started the season as favourites for relegation, with some bookmakers they were 5000-1 to win the Premier League. Yet they flew through the season, only losing three games on route to the most unlikely Premier League title in history. Whilst this is rightly being talked about as the ultimate football fairy tale story, what can be learnt from it?

What I think it shows is that the ‘Moneyball’ concept could work in professional football. If a lower budget team adopted the mentality and began searching for players who had good individual attributes, and putting them into a team which could then execute an effective game plan could very well prove to work better for that club than the existing model.

Whilst it’s possible the entire Leicester season was indeed a one-off fairy tale, it’s equally possible that Leicester proved that a new model of structuring a team can be successful in football. It will be interesting to see in the future if any other Premier League clubs adopt this mentality, and if it works the revolutionary balls of change may begin to roll.

‘Moneyball’ proved that in baseball you didn’t need to pay the high wages of a Derek Jeter to be successful and compete, so could Leicester’s success prove you don’t need a Sergio Aguero or Paul Pogba to be successful? Only time will tell.

 

What do you think of the ‘Moneyball’ concept, and do you think it could work in the Premier League? Let me know in the comments section below and thank you for reading. Find me on Twitter @brfcjordan95.

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Why Leicester winning the Premier League is momentous

5000/1. Those were the odds with most bookies in August last year when the Premier League season started. A team filled with cast offs and unknown low budget signings who had needed a miracle late run to avoid relegation last season. For those who wanted an outside bet, they have now come up trumps as Leicester have been crowned the most unlikely Premier League champions likely in our lifetime.

The squad have excelled themselves and shocked the world with their brilliantly effective counter attacking brand of football. Despite immense pressure and scepticism from the wider world, they have managed to achieve the seemingly impossible task of taking on the big guns of the two Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool and beat them.

These clubs have spent hundreds of millions of pounds that have been vanquished by a squad assembled for less than £30 million pounds. It’s the ultimate David vs Goliath sports story, one that is already been talked about becoming a major Hollywood film. This is why their achievement this season is so important to club football across the world.

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This bar chart shows the value of each Premier League this season. This only enhances their achievement this season. Photo copyright CIES Football Observatory.

The Premier League is watched by billions of people across the world, only enhancing the impact of Leicester’s triumph around the globe. Leicester have shattered the previous notion in football that you need to assemble a squad filled with the best and most expensive players in the world to win anything in major club football.

The most popular sport in the world has developed an unhealthy obsession with money, as it now becomes fashionable for a club to be taken over by increasingly rich billionaires with too much money to know what to do with. Manchester City are the blueprint for this example, as their takeover in 2008 and injection of Abu Dhabi money has elevated them from a solid Premier League side to one now competing with Real Madrid in the semi-finals of the Champions League.

Leicester have shown the world that this is not always the answer, and that smaller clubs on modest budgets can compete with the big guns. Whilst some may argue that this is an unlikely achievements that will not be repeated anytime soon, it does give clubs hope for the future that if they can invest in the right scouting networks and youth development they don’t need a spend big money to play well and rise above their perceived expectations.

Midfielder Riyad Mahrez and striker Jamie Vardy have stolen the headlines, but the entire squad have made themselves into stars thanks to their hard work and high quality performances this season. Rumours have begun to circle that most of the players such as Vardy,Mahrez and N’Golo Kante are going to be the subject of big money bids from bigger clubs.

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Jamie Vardy celebrating one of his many goals this season. He will have more to celebrate now they have won the league. Photo copyright Graham Chadwick.

Clubs are also scampering to unlock the secret to their success this season, with Arsenal signing their head scout in the hope he can uncover the next Mahrez or Kante. This is missing the point however. Whilst other clubs can offer increased wages and the promise of regular Champions League football, they will it hard to break through the bond this squad appears to have.

The collective spirit at the club is likely what will keep a lot of their key players from leaving, and a lot of the credit for this has to go to manager Claudio Ranieri. The vastly experienced manager had tempered expectations and kept the team motivated to the point they have been by far the best team in the league this season. He has presided and led his team to a remarkable achievement, one that is very unlikely to ever be repeated in a major football league.

For now it’s beginning to sink in that Leicester City really have won the Premier League. Awaiting them in a summer filled with celebrations, before embarking on another Premier League campaign and a debut in the world’s best club competition, the Champions League. They will find themselves up against the likes of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Juventus. And this is exactly where Leicester belong after this season. Let that sink in for a moment. This is the real impact and signals how remarkable it is what they managed to do this season.

What are your thoughts on Leicester’s remarkable triumph this season? Feel free to comment and give your thoughts below. Also thank you for reading and you can find me on Twitter @brfcjordan95.

 

Times Are Changing In The Premier League

As I write this, December 30th 2015, a simple look at the Premier League table will provide plenty of shocks to football fans across the world.  At the halfway point of the season, you would expect the traditional top four teams to occupy the lucrative Champions League places.

The traditional top four consisting of Arsenal,Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea have barely changed since the Premier League era began in 1992. The only change has been the emergence of Manchester City and it’s Middle Eastern mega rich backers. Their money have allowed them to usurp Liverpool in the traditional top four. These traditional super powers of English football have dominated for over two decades. Until this season.

This season has been hugely unpredictable, with the traditional ‘big’ clubs dropping off slightly as those below them have risen up. This perfect storm has manifested itself into a current Premier League table which no one could have predicted before the season.

Yes, Arsenal may currently be top of the league, but after years of ridicule thanks to a recent lack of success, their accession to the top of the league has been slightly surprising.  The London’s clubs fortunes this season pale into insignificance thanks to the sterling performances of lowly Leicester City. The team that produced a miracle to stay up last season have been Premier League leaders for a huge portion of the season, currently sitting second in the league, level on points with Arsenal.

What is remarkable is that at this point Leicester were bottom of the league and looking certain to be relegated. Their survival was a fairy tale, but under new manager Claudio Ranieri, words cannot describe the unexpected success the team has had so far this season.

With a first team bought for less than £20 million pounds, Leicester have matched and beaten the likes of Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United. The team’s transfer policy has been rewarded massively with bargains such as Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez in particular stealing the headlines. Costing a combined £1.4 million, the pair have linked up beautifully this season to devastating effect.

jamie-vardy-riyad-mahrez-leicester-city_3375357Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez celebrate one of the dynamic duo’s many goals for Leicester this season. Photo copyright Sky Sports.

Vardy has taken most of the plaudits thanks to setting a new Premier League record of scoring in eleven consecutive games, and currently sits joint top of the goalscorers list with 15 goals in 16 games. Mahrez is not far behind his team mate, with 13 goals in 17 games so far in the league.

Below Leicester there are plenty more surprises. Pre-season favorites Manchester City’s struggling away form limits them to third currently, with Tottenham the current form team in the league sitting pretty in fourth.

They have rose steadily up the league, and this season finally looks to be the season they can break through into the top four and the all important Champions League, after years of just missing out in fifth.

Crystal Palace are another high flying team, who have gone from lower mid-table to fifth in just over a season under Alan Pardew. In any other season their performances would have garnered plenty of press attention, but amongst the struggles of others and the rise of Leicester they have been regrettably been overlooked so far.

One team who have certainly not been overlooked by the press have been Manchester United. Arguably the world’s most famous club are floundering in sixth, with a under fire Louis Van Gaal the most likely manager to be next sacked. Since the Sir Alex Ferguson era ended, the clubs management and transfers have not been up to scratch. Their traditional role as a perennial top four side is seriously under threat for the future if something does not change at the club soon.

3118074087Louis Van Gaal feeling the strain after their defeat to Stoke on Boxing Day. Will he still be in charge next season? Photo copyright PA.

Throughout the league there are shocks, with the newly promoted Watford surprising everyone by sitting in eighth, led by top scorer Odion Ighalo and his 13 goals. Liverpool are suffering from a turbulent season and currently sit tenth in the league, giving new manager Jurgen Klopp a lot to think about with the January transfer window coming up.

Liverpool are currently in the final stages of the steady declining process bitter rivals Manchester United are just entering into now. The club needs to adjust it’s transfer policy, which in recent years has been laughable in comparison with the likes of Leicester.

In the bottom half of the table, there is one glaringly obvious surprise. Chelsea. The current Premier League champions have suffered the kind of awful season rarely experienced in the top European leagues. Everyone has been wondering quite simply how can a team that won the league seven moths ago retain the same squad and yet be 14th in the league going into 2016.

Whilst many pinned the blame on top players turning on Jose Mourinho. Whilst the unthinkable happened several weeks ago and the special one was sacked from his beloved Chelsea, even under interim boss Guus Hiddink results have not dramatically improved.

This season is not likely to get any easier for Chelsea, and realistically they would be happy with a top ten finish to the season, something laughable before the season started in August.

2C3849B000000578-0-image-a-26_1442147035612This expression from Jose Mourinho perfectly sums up their season. The look of disbelief and regret is shared amongst Chelsea fans. Photo copyright Reuters.

With the consistent increases in TV money giving every team a lot more money to spend, it becoming clear the traditionally vast differences between the budgets of the top four and the rest is closing at a gradual pace. Whilst the likes of Man City and Man Utd of course have huge resources to spend, their performances relative to that of the likes of Leicester and Watford show that top ten teams can be assembled for a fraction of what the big clubs spend.

With increasing pressure amongst the traditional top four as to their current future’s, could this season mark a turning point in the traditional balance of power with the Premier League. With question marks over the manager’s positions at Man City,Man Utd and Chelsea for next season could we see the likes of Crystal Palace and Leicester consistently challenging the top four in years to come?

In the past it appears there was a certain fright factor associated with playing the top four clubs, but this season has consistently shown that any club in the league can beat the top four on their day. With this new found confidence, perfectly illustrated by Stoke’s recent demolition of Man City 2-0 a few weeks ago, I hope this season will become the norm as the Premier League seemingly becomes more competitive every week. I’m sure you will join me in eagerly anticipating the second half of this season.

What are your thoughts on the current state of the Premier League? Please give your thoughts below and most importantly thank you for reading.